The PV business goes by a transformational part in 2022, impacting on all main gamers within the upstream and downstream segments. On the coronary heart of those adjustments are developments referring to PV know-how and what the panorama for module provide shall be 2-3 years out.
This text explains how productiveness of newly ramped TOPCon cell strains and capital expenditure (capex) into heterojunction (HJT) fabs in 2022 are underpinning the transfer from the business’s workhouse cell substrates (p-type) to greater high quality and performing n-type variants.
These two subjects are actually important to grasp, and the way the considerably competing architectures (TOPCon and HJT) will evolve throughout 2023 to 2025. In the end, this may redefine what mainstream PV (module) know-how choices will seem like throughout the 3-year interval from 2024 to 2027.
Beneath additionally, I focus on the forthcoming PV CellTech Extra convention, to be held on-line throughout 11-13 October 2022: how the classes have been structured to clarify the brand new n-type cell applied sciences which are progressing on the mass manufacturing degree; and what new research-driven course of flows are making the most important affect now.
Heterojunction in China-investment mode in 2022
Document ranges of capex have been invested into new HJT strains in 2022, nearly all primarily based upon new Chinese language corporations (or largely inexperienced PV producers) attempting to carve out a know-how area of interest inside an already extremely aggressive panorama.
Bulletins (MOUs, intentions, aspirations) have been plentiful throughout the previous couple of years inside China. In fact, many are speculative and won’t come to fruition. However many are actual, and have led to HJT being given a degree of precedence that’s maybe not merited when productiveness and module provide globally proper now.
The case for HJT is definitely not as pronounced because it was 20 years in the past when the business was principally making p-type multi cells with efficiencies within the mid-teens, and two corporations (SunPower and Sanyo) had been kitting out a GW-levels primarily based on IBC and heterojunction strains. Then, the arguments to maneuver to the upper performing n-type platforms had been important. The rationale the business didn’t observe these corporations was a mixture of technical know-how and manufacturing price obstacles.
So far as HJT advanced on this first know-how wave, Sanyo was purchased by Panasonic, and slowly the corporate’s exercise as a cell producer was deprioritized and ultimately terminated.
To make use of the identical narrative for HJT immediately is misplaced. There isn’t a longer a big delta when different mainstream choices, particularly the extra mature TOPCon (earlier n-PERT) exercise. Extra on this beneath within the TOPCon part.
In actual fact, even when TOPCon was not making such large steps available in the market immediately, HJT would nonetheless justifiably be a candidate for the subsequent know-how step available in the market after p-mono PERC. However what has occurred with TOPCon prior to now 12 months now places HJT underneath large stress to indicate outcomes: not simply from a manufacturing standpoint, however from a profitability perspective. Till now, no-one has demonstrated making HJT cells/modules with earnings.
Subsequently, HJT remains to be a know-how ready to be confirmed. And 2023 will certainly be the yr through which we’ll know if HJT can co-exist in excessive quantity alongside TOPCon over the subsequent 5 years, or shall be confined to the historical past books alongside a-Si, CIGS and presumably IBC (if Maxeon decides to terminate Asian manufacturing and transition absolutely to p-type mainstream PERC-based choices).
For the HJT supporters, there are a number of sides to the 2023 image. By far, essentially the most exercise (investments, new gamers) is in China: Chinese language corporations (a lot of whom are new to photo voltaic) shopping for Chinese language manufacturing gear. Nonetheless, the steadiness of energy, so to say, is firmly within the arms of their gear suppliers proper now.
From the variety of HJT proponents in China immediately, by far essentially the most superior is Huasun. New to PV manufacturing and closely engaged with gear suppliers each in Europe and China, the corporate was profitable in getting a utility-scale deal exterior China (in Jap Europe).
There are clear similarities between Huasun (on HJT) and Jolywood (on the TOPCon entrance), in looking for to have abroad enterprise with a differentiated know-how (and likewise as first mover from China). Huasun might be the test-bed for HJT in China: success in ramping strains, transport high quality cells/modules, and making earnings may shortly be unfold by cross-pollination to the home HJT eco-system. Behind the scenes, this appears to have been the best way that TOPCon bought kick-started (on the multi-GW degree) inside China.
A fast facet notice on the equipment-supplier relationship talked about above for HJT in China: applied sciences pushed by gear suppliers to the market (and the place the technical IP/experience resides with the instrument makers) have tended to finish up in tears within the PV business. Cell makers finally must personal data and be in command of their very own destinies. Bear in mind Utilized Supplies, Oerlikon, ULVAC…
Outdoors China, there are three credible HJT corporations proper now: Hevel, REC Group and Meyer Burger. Every has been advocating the know-how for years, however in 2023 every now wants to indicate proof of quantity manufacturing (GW-plus) with profitability. Let’s look now at these corporations from a HJT value-added perspective.
Hevel (as a part of mum or dad firm investments into upstream and downstream PV actions) might be essentially the most profitable HJT cell producer within the Western world immediately. Largely benefiting from its transition from a-Si to HJT, Hevel needed to nearly single-handedly spend money on R&D to make the know-how change work. Over the subsequent 18 months, the transfer to an built-in ingot-to-module GW-scale HJT fab (by the EnCORE PV automobile) ought to change into a actuality, and ramping this up and being aggressive (and worthwhile) within the PV business panorama on the finish of 2023 then change into the metrics that may decide the corporate’s HJT development out to 2025 and past. Apparently, Hevel/EnCORE has the scope to be each a HJT cell or module provider, one thing that isn’t on the playing cards for the opposite non-Chinese language HJT corporations talked about above.
Meyer Burger remains to be on the early phases of its rebirth as a cell/module producer (and never gear provider). Much like Hevel, there are not any issues concerning technical know-how in the case of HJT – Meyer Burger has been making HJT gear for a very long time and the legacy give attention to supplying turn-key cell strains is sort of the proper stepping-stone into mass manufacturing mode. A lot of the excellent questions relate to the corporate’s long-term operational well being and its skill to earn money promoting HJT modules; Meyer Burger has no different income streams to depend on. Making earnings promoting HJT modules is the one path to succeed. One key benefit of Meyer Burger HJT modules nevertheless is the power to have a 100% non-China supply-chain (polysilicon, ingot/wafer, cell/module); essential for the U.S. market now, different areas (and international company patrons) will align quickly to have full traceability on manufacturing.
REC Group – not for the primary time in 20 years – goes by one other transitional part immediately. The corporate’s shift to HJT is but to be absolutely enabled. Initially, the corporate was a p-multi champion, and bought dragged into mono by the dominance of the Chinese language photo voltaic phase a number of years in the past. Then there was a push to supply n-PERT/TOPcon to the business. Then an association of kinds was introduced with Meyer Burger (then promoting HJT turn-key strains) that didn’t work out. And at last, the corporate went to China to purchase a turn-key line for a renewed HJT push. And through this time, the corporate modified from being Chinese language-owned to Indian-owned. 2023 is the yr that manufacturing for HJT must be the one metric that may present the skin world that HJT is central to long-term plans. Apparently although, the earlier push for PERT/TOPcon could also be important, and if the market appears like it would transfer to TOPCon, the corporate ought to have the ability to make this alteration simply.
Subsequently, with HJT, there are a lot of totally different initiatives on the go. Each inside China and globally. On the finish of 2023, it will likely be a lot clearer which corporations have gained a foothold within the n-type transition part.
However finally, it could possibly be that TOPCon developments transfer at a quicker fee than any of the HJT advocates can sustain with. So, let’s speak TOPCon now.
TOPCon nonetheless on monitor to switch mono-PERC as the subsequent mainstream PV know-how
It needs to be famous first that TOPCon is simply the present acronym in vogue to classify photo voltaic cells that use n-type substrates and are primarily based on the extra typical entrance/rear facet deposition processes which were the spine of PV manufacturing till now.
The usage of n-type substrates shouldn’t be new, when it comes to a clean ‘improve’ to the usual p-type cell course of stream. The primary main industrial drive on this respect was when Yingli Inexperienced (then the main module provider globally) ‘partnered’ with ECN and Tempress (then a part of Amtech Programs) in what was marketed because the PANDA know-how. At this level, nomenclature for photo voltaic cells was not but in vogue, though the idea of the PANDA know-how was primarily the passivated emitter, rear completely subtle (PERT) construction.
Varied different cell producers tried to introduce n-type cells to the market through the years, with the most important investments being when LG Electronics bankrolled efforts to be a photo voltaic module model. By this time, course of stream adjustments to the n-PERT construction had resulted in a brand new acronym being adopted: TOPCon.
In the end, not one of the early efforts succeeded however an enormous quantity of R&D and pilot-line studying had taken place. Crucially additionally, p-type mono had change into a extremely subtle cell sort that made the transition from p-type mono PERC to n-type TOPCon an apparent (and intensely low threat) step.
That is now the place JinkoSolar and JA Photo voltaic enter the story. I’ve commented extensively on PV-Tech and at numerous different occasions over the previous 18 months that these two corporations are those which are defining know-how within the PV business now. What these two corporations determined to do after p-mono PERC was nearly sure to set the benchmark for everybody else.
Lengthy-story-short, Jinko and JA adopted TOPCon; and 2021/2022 has seen large investments by these corporations in TOPCon (from ingot-to-module) because the chosen know-how over the subsequent 3-5 years. No matter any scientific arguments, or competing-technology aspirations, if Jinko and JA select TOPCon, one may argue that the subsequent mainstream know-how shift has been determined.
The one remaining piece of the puzzle right here is definitely what Tongwei and Aiko do subsequent. These two corporations feed a lot of the different module suppliers globally. Neither firm drives know-how change: they’re low-cost China-centric photo voltaic cell enablers that make what module suppliers should be aggressive. I absolutely anticipate Tongwei and Aiko to be TOPCon-driven in 2023. In that case, then maybe the query of the subsequent mainstream PV know-how (going out 5 years) is a done-deal. HJT should still have a job for GW-level cell/module producers, largely as a result of the business by then shall be properly above the 300 GW annual degree.
However, plenty of circumstances and hypothesis right here! For now, that is my most certainly know-how roadmap for the sector. JinkoSolar, JA Photo voltaic, Tongwei and Aiko are those to look at.
Moreover, if manufacturing in 2022 is something to go by, TOPCon is the winner. If module provide (primarily based on contractual deliveries globally) for 2023-2024 is a sign, once more TOPCon is the one recreation on the town. Wanting now at preparations (contracts) in place for quantity shipments globally in 2023 and 2024, the one n-type know-how being backed is TOPCon. (Sure, there are HJT ‘offers’ being completed, however excessive threat and never from any of the main international module suppliers immediately.)
So, a minimum of for now, one can be courageous to wager towards TOPCon being the subsequent mainstream acronym after PERC. However know-how shouldn’t be static and much from standardized. On this respect, utilizing catchy phrases is sweet but in addition masks the physics at play in manufacturing. This probably turns into much more topical when the business begins to maneuver past the single-junction cell that (apart from a number of photo voltaic cells in area!) has enabled photo voltaic to be an vitality supply of worth in 2022. On this respect, every thing being completed immediately to push PERC to any PERC+ variant, or to maneuver HJT to the GW-scale manufacturing stage, is simply going to assist when the actual shift in cell know-how occurs later this decade because the business strikes to tandem or hybrid ideas.
Expertise development has by no means been so spectacular within the PV business. And that is the place Chinese language corporations must take all of the plaudits. Twenty years in the past, the PV business had a bunch of Western (European, Japanese, U.S.-based) gear suppliers that taught the primary wave of Asian producers find out how to make entry-level photo voltaic cells. Throughout the previous 10 years, Chinese language manufacturing has proven the world find out how to transfer to superior cell ideas at lightning pace. Module patrons could hate the truth that product datasheets change each few months, however how these identical patrons are benefiting massively from the improved merchandise on supply. On this respect, if TOPCon turns into mainstream or TOPCon and HJT co-exist globally come 2025, then it’s Chinese language innovation that shall be a key issue behind this.
Introducing PV CellTech Additional – a web based international know-how webinar feast!
Launched in 2015, the PV CellTech occasions have change into the go-to annual occasion for PV know-how in manufacturing, focusing particularly on photo voltaic cell mass manufacturing points, market-leaders’ know-how roadmaps, and figuring out superior ideas being launched immediately that shall be mainstream choices 2-3 years out.
Wanting again over seven years of PV CellTech, I nonetheless can’t imagine how a lot the business has supported this kind of occasion. Years in the past, I bear in mind numerous discussions with my colleague at PV-Tech, Mark Osborne, on how the business was missing a top quality manufacturing convention the place CTO’s went on stage and defined know-how. We mapped out an idea, primarily primarily based on what we had each seen work in adjoining know-how phase.
Since 2015, it’s unimaginable how a lot know-how has been accelerated throughout the PV business: listening to monetary analysts ask me when perovskites will change into mainstream; getting quizzed by institutional buyers concerning the variations between LID and LeTID. 5 years in the past, the identical viewers was telling me that PV modules had been a commoditized product and the one factor that mattered was getting cheaper me-too merchandise going ahead.
Publish-pandemic, we moved the flagship annual in-person occasion from Malaysia to Germany (in March 2022). Nonetheless, there’s now a large and rising international curiosity in photo voltaic cell know-how, a various viewers desirous to know when the pilot strains of immediately will feed into utility-scale module availability from 2024 onwards. Subsequently, we are actually going to carry an annual on-line model of the in-person occasion; that is referred to as PV CellTech Extra. Think about three days of webinars from the cell market leaders, equipment-suppliers and technology-transfer analysis labs.
PV CellTech Extra will happen on 11-13 October 2022, and particulars on how to enroll to listen to the talks will be discovered here.
Day 1 focuses purely on TOPCon in manufacturing and the way this know-how will evolve 2-3 years out. Day 2 is particular to heterojunction. And Day 3 is devoted to PERC-Plus and hybrid/tandem/perovskite applied sciences.
Collectively, the vary of shows ought to give everybody a full understanding of what to anticipate going ahead when it comes to modules to the market within the close to to mid-term, and hopefully on the finish of the week we’ll all be a bit additional forward when it comes to understanding all of the questions immediately referring to TOPCon and HJT!
