Photo voltaic module costs for worldwide markets are anticipated to fall in tandem with forecasted polysilicon value reductions as of 2023, in line with analysis from Clear Power Associates (CEA).
The standard assurance and provide chain administration agency revealed that whereas module pricing this yr stays fixed resulting from higher-than-expected European buy volumes and restricted polysilicon provides, pricing will drop as of 2023.
In its PV Price Forecasting Report (Q2 – 2022), CEA recommends solely procuring modules round two to 3 quarters from supply as the present market atmosphere will impression future long-term orders.
Within the US, module costs elevated considerably from the agency’s earlier forecast because of the menace of an anti-dumping and countervailing responsibility (AD/CVD) extension to a number of Southeast Asian international locations.
Whereas President Joe Biden declared a two-year freeze on new tariffs on photo voltaic imports from Southeast Asia, CEA famous that capacities stay liable to future charges, which has impacted many suppliers’ Southeast Asian growth plans and lowered the outlook for cell and module growth within the area.
As well as, implementing the US Uyghur Pressured Labor Prevention Act has introduced new cargo detentions for a few of the trade’s largest suppliers, inflicting considerations that module availability within the US for the rest of 2022 could also be extra restricted than beforehand thought, the report discovered.
When it comes to polysilicon, CEA mentioned that though shortages have plagued the photo voltaic trade since late 2020, polysilicon costs are forecast to drop all through 2023 as sizeable manufacturing capacities come on-line.
With China’s authorities asserting its intention to intervene within the polysilicon market to satisfy renewable set up aims, the photo voltaic trade could anticipate steeper polysilicon value drops if authorities motion materialises, CEA mentioned.
As reported by PV Tech Premium, electrical energy rationing in China induced the typical value of polysilicon to rise but once more final week.
Whereas long-term contract costs for polysilicon are anticipated to be lower than spot market charges, given there are very constrained volumes exterior of long-term contracts, even long-term contract holders are experiencing the pressures of excessive polysilicon costs, the report mentioned.
It added that costs are anticipated to stay within the mid-US$30/kg vary for large-scale polysilicon patrons till the top of 2022, with the primary declines in pricing anticipated in Q1 2023 because the post-market rush in China, coupled with extra polysilicon growth, ought to tip the polysilicon market on the trail towards oversupply.
