In its Q2 2022 PV Supplier Market Intelligence Program Report (SMIP), Clear Vitality Associates (CEA) exhibits how dramatically the photo voltaic PV module provide chain is about to develop, each amongst module/cell suppliers and in upstream provide. The report is subscription-only, however listed below are some key takeaways we are able to share.
Manufacturing capability updates and the change away from PERC
- Module capability expansions are slowing, however many suppliers proceed to extend cell manufacturing capability, particularly for brand new factories catering to n-type TOPCon or HJT manufacturing.
- Solely seven suppliers lined by the report are vertically built-in from ingot to module manufacturing, with most others solely holding cell and module capability.
- With rising service provider wafer choices, there’s no need for many suppliers to broaden upstream.
- Whereas some suppliers nonetheless see further positive aspects for PERC cells, most have shifted their focus to exploring TOPCon and HJT, given promising effectivity potential based mostly on champion effectivity ranges.
Producers optimize wafer sizes after standardizing module dimensions
On the manufacturing aspect, suppliers are exploring methods to optimize wafer sizes after standardizing 210 mm (G12) and 182 mm (M10) module dimensions.
- The “182 mm Plus” (182P) has elevated wafer heights to additional scale back “white area” brought on by intercell gaps to attain as much as 5 W of further output. Module sizes might be unaffected.
- The “210 mm Diminished” (210R) has diminished wafer widths for area of interest rooftop purposes on the expense of energy output. New module sizes for rooftop purposes might be launched.
International PV provide chain capacities
Six polysilicon services are anticipated to completely ramp up manufacturing this quarter, bringing Q3’s whole international obtainable polysilicon manufacturing nameplate to 90 GW. Finish-of-year polysilicon capacities are anticipated to achieve 295 GW in 2022 (after accounting for manufacturing unit upkeep) and as much as 536 GW in 2023 (assuming all tasks within the pipeline develop as deliberate).
- Ingot capability grew virtually 30 GW this quarter, primarily as a consequence of one other 23 GW coming on-line at two services.
- Wafer capability decreased barely, primarily as a consequence of a provider retiring its multi-crystalline wafer capability.
- The 17 PV suppliers lined within the report elevated whole cell capability by 22% in Q2 2022 alone, bringing an extra 47 GW of capability on-line to achieve a complete of 262 GW this quarter.
- Module manufacturing capacities in Q2 2022 reached over 324 GW, and by the tip of 2022 are forecasted to achieve practically 400 GW, up roughly 20% from present capacities.
PV provide chain capacities outdoors China
- Suppliers lined by the report presently function 11 GW of non-China ingot capability, 42 GW of non-China cell capability, and practically 50 GW of non-China module capability. They preserve plans to extend these capacities to 23 GW, 73 GW, and 74 GW, respectively.
- Virtually all suppliers have realized non-China improve plans for big wafers; just a few suppliers migrating to the 210 mm format want further time to finalize growth plans because of the want for extra expensive gear buying/upgrading.
- Coverage uncertainties proceed to defer growth plans of suppliers as they continue to be cautious as a consequence of lingering coverage uncertainty in the US surrounding the Uyghur Compelled Labor Prevention Act and anticircumvention investigation.
The complete Q2 SMIP report covers extra about polysilicon worth tendencies, China’s PV market, manufacturing in North America, Europe and India, n-type provider updates, detailed module and uncooked materials capability data, and up-to-date operational knowledge for the most important photo voltaic suppliers.
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