The record-breaking dimension and bustling halls of Enex Expo confirmed that the Polish PV market has no intention of slowing down. Whereas final 12 months’s swap from web metering to web billing is predicted to proceed to reverberate by the residential photo voltaic market, the industrial and industrial (C&I) and utility-scale PV market segments stand prepared to select up the slack.
The 2023 version of the Enex Expo mirrored the sturdy development the Polish photo voltaic sector has skilled in recent times. It attracted a wholesome roll name of huge producers and native gamers, with inverter and warmth pump producers taking middle stage.
The occasion was held on March 8 and March 9 in Targi Kielce, round 200 kilometers south of Warsaw. It attracted 323 corporations from 15 international locations and 19,600 guests, spreading throughout a floor of 33 096 m2. In line with the organizers, it was a record-breaking version, up from 190 exhibitors and 7868 guests welcomed in 2022 on a floor of 15 550 sq. meters.
To the shock of some exhibitors and attendees, final 12 months’s adjustments in laws for the distributed-generation PV phase didn’t dampen the keenness on the present’s ground.
Particularly, Poland’s residential rooftop PV sector underwent a profound change in spring final 12 months when new provisions have been launched for PV “micro-installations” as much as 50 kW in dimension. The brand new web billing system changed the web metering scheme that was in pressure since 2016, jeopardizing what has been the nation’s key PV deployment engine.
Mid final 12 months, a number of vital gamers within the Polish PV sector reported vital monetary losses, and a few set up corporations have even gone bankrupt. Nonetheless, Poland managed to put in 4.9 GW of photo voltaic PV in 2022, in response to Photo voltaic Energy Europe knowledge, making it the third largest market in Europe, after Germany and Spain.
“Nearly 90% of PV installs in 2022 got here from prosumers,” stated Bogdan Szymanski, vp of the Polish PV Affiliation (SBF Polska PV).“This 12 months, issues will look a bit completely different.”
In line with Szymanski, the market is predicted to stay on the expansion trajectory however with a shift from micro-installations to the utility-scale.
“This 12 months, some 50% of recent installs will come from prosumers,” he stated. “In the meantime, many 100 MW or 200 MW initiatives within the pipeline will come to fruition after they’ve emerged from years-long allowing procedures.”
The C&I PV market phase can be anticipated to make a substantial contribution to this 12 months’s grand complete.
“Final 12 months, we witnessed the awakening of the C&I PV market phase in Poland,” stated Maciej Borowiak, vp of SBF Polska PV and cofounder of PV set up firm Brewa. “The electrical energy costs have been 5 time larger than four-five years in the past with a median of PLZ 1,200 ($273)/MW and SMEs began to show to PV as a protect towards electrical energy worth volatility.”
In line with Borowiak, two or three years in the past, there was no curiosity coming from the C&I market phase.
“Now, my firm is making ready virtually every single day a proposal for 1 MW or 2 MW initiatives and even as much as 5 MW arrays and all these initiatives are planning a PPA enterprise mannequin,” he provides.
Nevertheless, whereas PV system as much as 50 kW want no permission, it normally takes round 12 months to get all obligatory permits for larger programs. One other headwind is the present regulation that applies to the PPA market.
“A most PPA worth of round PLZ 350/kWh was fastened and it’ll keep efficient for a 12 months,” Szymanski stated. “In different phrases, if you happen to promote at a worth which is larger than the one set within the public sale plus PLZ 50, you’ll want to pay the tax on all the quantity earned above this worth, and that is placing some buyers off.”
Whereas new regulation is predicted within the PPA house in addition to in regard to permits for development of direct traces, the trade insiders consider that not a lot change will materialize this 12 months because of the upcoming parliamentary elections.
In the meantime, prospects are brilliant for warmth pumps. Final 12 months, Poland was the quickest rising warmth pump market in Europe with a 130% gross sales development 12 months on 12 months. In line with native associations, no such soar is predicted this 12 months, however the set up tempo will hold the momentum going.
A number of the main warmth pump suppliers – Panasonic, Mitsubishi Electrical, and Daikin – instructed pv journal at Enex Expo that they have been caught off guard by the speedy rise in demand seen final 12 months however that the present lead occasions have been diminished to round six months.