Amid all the thrill concerning the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) at this 12 months’s RE+ tradeshow in Anaheim, California, analysis agency Wooden Mackenzie (WoodMac) has repeated warnings that module provide shortages are set to persist till the top of 2023.
Talking with PV Tech at RE+, Sylvia Leyva Martinez, WoodMac’s senior analysis analyst for North American utility-scale photo voltaic, stated that whereas there may be a variety of pleasure concerning the IRA, and rightly so, WoodMac’s expectation is that the advantages of the Act gained’t be felt earlier than 2024 as module constraints will dampen deployment ranges.
On prime of this, uncertainty across the Uyghur Pressured Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) and different import restrictions will restrict photo voltaic deployment by means of 2023 as a consequence of module availability constraints.
Earlier this month, WoodMac launched a report along with Photo voltaic Power Industries Affiliation (SEIA) that defined how the UFLPA – which went into impact on 21 June 2022 – in addition to the alleged circumvention of antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) have negatively impacted the photo voltaic trade this 12 months.
Certainly, photo voltaic installations forecasts have dropped to fifteen.7GW for 2022, the bottom complete since 2019, regardless of the waiving of photo voltaic tariffs from Southeast Asia for 2 years and the assist contained inside the IRA.
That waiver, nevertheless, will finish in 2024 however Leyva Martinez stated there was “sufficient time for builders to diversify and to create procurement agreements with suppliers”, including there was the potential for panic shopping for within the run as much as that interval, which might compound module availability additional.
“As of proper now we’re simply ready for the Division of Commerce to announce a preliminary dedication”, Leyva Martinez stated, in addition to extra readability on the home content material necessities wanted to entry adders below the IRA, which has been a scorching matter at this 12 months’s present.
Publish-2024, Leyva Martinez and WoodMac predict large deployment throughout the US as long as two areas are addressed within the interim: interconnection wait occasions and labour shortages.
Interconnection prices and delays have been a thorn within the aspect of builders for a while now and PV Tech have beforehand reported how price certainty, decreased wait occasions and extra versatile agreements with utilities are essential to fixing the US’ interconnections issues following a panel dialogue at RE+.
In terms of labour shortages, Leyva Martinez instructed PV Tech of anecdotal proof of photo voltaic installers being understaffed, with staff interested in greater paying jobs in an enormous job market and the backdrop of inflationary pressures.
Nonetheless, steps are being taken to make sure a sizeable workforce is accessible sooner or later and the prevailing wage and apprenticeship necessities within the IRA ought to facilitate larger coaching and upskilling of photo voltaic staff.