Radovan Kopecek, an knowledgeable on interdigitated back-contacted (IBC) tech, says that IBC photo voltaic panels may seize greater than 50% of the worldwide market by 2030, probably pushing TOPCon merchandise out of competitors. He informed pv journal how this transition may materialize and mentioned the tech developments that would make it attainable.
Photo voltaic modules constructed with cells based mostly on both-sided contacted know-how, similar to TOPCon panels, may probably get replaced by PV modules based mostly on interdigitated back-contacted designs by the top of this decade, based on Radovan Kopecek, the co-founder and director of Germany’s ISC Konstanz.
“It will depend upon the truth that the prolonged use of tunnel oxide passivation for each polarities on a module rear aspect, as for IBC merchandise, might turn into probably the most advantageous choice,” Kopecek informed pv journal. “IBC photo voltaic modules might drive TOPCon panels out of the market by 2028.”
He stated that the transition to IBC merchandise may start as early as 2025, with merchandise based mostly on both-sided contacts probably changing into a factor of the previous by 2030. He claims that the worldwide market share of IBC modules may enhance from round 2% in 2022 to about 6% in 2026, 20% in 2028, and greater than 50% in 2030.
“Many Tier-1 producers are already engaged on IBC moreover their TOPCon growth,” he stated. “As each applied sciences have very comparable elements like the event of single-sided and quick poly-Si depositions, silver discount, enchancment of high quality and prices n-type wafers, the change will go fairly quick.”
In his view, the change will occur by including complexity to present manufacturing strains with commonplace tools.
“We have been extraordinarily shocked in 2012, once we began our bifiPV workshop about the way forward for bifacial modules in Konstanz, that folks didn’t see that bifacial PV will include a excessive affect on the PV market,” Kopecek defined. “Now, in 2022 we’re equally shocked that folks don’t see that after the upcoming dominance of TOPCon the final evolutionary step to IBC will observe. The subsequent step to tandem just isn’t an evolutionary course of anymore however a small revolution. And right here I fairly imagine that it’ll take some time earlier than this know-how will probably be seen in the marketplace.”
The success of IBC tech will materialize by effectivity enhancements and decrease manufacturing prices, he added.
“The effectivity good points needs to be ensured by the implementation of poly-Si passivation know-how, whereas decrease manufacturing prices ought to come from the adoption of copper or aluminum metallic contacts,” Kopecek stated. “We demonstrated already IBC cell efficiencies above 23% with 20mg of silver solely utilizing copper or aluminum. Nonetheless, we imagine that the dominancy of silver will proceed and the change will occur solely in a yearly 1 TW to three TW market ranging from 2028, when the PV trade will probably be compelled to modify.”
He stated that IBC photo voltaic cells have already reached effectivity ranges of greater than 24.5% and open-circuit voltages near 730 mV, compared to 23% and 685 mV in PERC cells and 24% and 710 mV in TOPCon units.
“However it’s not solely about effectivity. It is usually about temperature coefficient, degradation, and bifaciality,” he stated. “And even when the bifaciality of IBC could also be barely decrease in comparison with TOPCon, entrance aspect effectivity, temperature coefficient, and degradation are rather more necessary components.”
He argued that the price discount of n-type wafers, together with the implementation of copper and aluminum metallization in IBC cells, may result in module manufacturing prices beneath $0.20/W.
“In the meanwhile, wafer and metallization prices are the foremost value variations in comparison with PERC know-how,” he stated.
Kopecek stated he additionally believes that technological developments may result in a levelized value of vitality (LCOE) in giant ground-mounted photo voltaic vegetation with bifacial IBC panels to lower than $0.01/kWh in lots of elements of the world sooner or later.